Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem: http://rdcb.cbg.ipn.mx/handle/20.500.12273/81
Título: Time series analysis of Onchocerciasis data from Mexico: a trend towards elimination
Autor: EDGAR EDUARDO LARA RAMIREZ
ID del Autor: info:eu-repo/dai/mx/cvu/230904
Resumen: In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico.
Fecha de publicación: 14-feb-2013
Editorial: Public Library of Science
Licencia: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
URI: http://rdcb.cbg.ipn.mx/handle/20.500.12273/81
Lenguaje: eng
Aparece en las colecciones:Artículos Científicos

Ficheros en este ítem:
Fichero Descripción TamañoFormato 
Edgar Eduardo Lara Ramirez 2 2013.pdfTime Series Analysis of Onchocerciasis Data from Mexico: A Trend towards Elimination497.22 kBAdobe PDFVisualizar/Abrir


Los ítems de RI-CBGIPN están protegidos por copyright, con todos los derechos reservados, a menos que se indique lo contrario.